Q3 2026 Economic Update: Beyond The Headlines 

What should clients watch in the U.S. and international economies? 

The U.S. economy showed a mixed picture this quarter: unemployment remained comfortably below its 30-year average, and both corporate earnings and GDP growth stayed in line with long-term trends, all encouraging signs. At the same time, job openings softened slightly and inflation, driven largely by energy costs, remained elevated above the Federal Reserve's target. Internationally, the story was more positive, with low global unemployment, rising job openings, and strong earnings growth in emerging markets, partly fueled by demand tied to AI technology. The takeaway is that no single data point tells the whole story, which is why maintaining a globally diversified portfolio, rather than concentrating only in recent top performers, helps capture growth wherever it occurs. 

How can clients navigate interest rates, inflation, and market ups and downs? How can clients navigate interest rates, inflation, and market ups and downs? 

Interest rates affect nearly everything, from mortgage costs to how attractive it is to hold cash and bonds. With the 30-year mortgage rate above 7%, higher borrowing costs have slowed housing activity even as higher rates make savings accounts and bonds more rewarding. Inflation remains a persistent concern since it erodes purchasing power over time, which is why keeping money invested, rather than sitting in cash, is important for protecting long-term wealth. Markets will always have periods of volatility. Stocks can drop significantly or rise significantly in any given year, but historical data shows that investors who stick to their financial plan through these swings tend to see better long-term outcomes than those who react emotionally. The key is having a strategy built for your timeline, not the news cycle. 

What investment approach can help keep a financial plan on track? 

A sound investment approach starts with a plan, not predictions, headlines, or emotions. Vision Based Planning builds its strategy around five core rules:  

1. Minimizing taxes  

2. Minimizing fees  

3. Removing emotion from decisions 

4. Rejecting market "gurus" who claim to predict the future 

5. Stay diversified across multiple areas of opportunity.  

The firm also prioritizes aligning investments with actual financial planning goals, which helps improve long-term outcomes. This approach is carried out through an ongoing cycle of allocating a globally diversified portfolio, researching market conditions quarterly, making adjustments when appropriate, and communicating clearly with clients along the way. 

Audience Q&A Recap 

What's the latest on unemployment and underemployment? Both metrics are trending positively: unemployment remains low, and underemployment (particularly among younger workers entering the workforce) has been improving as well. 

Is AI good or bad for the economy? The answer landed firmly in the middle. There's real utility in AI tools today, and the expectation is that the long-term impact will be more positive than negative, but there are legitimate concerns too, from environmental costs (energy and water use) to job displacement in certain sectors. The key, as with any transformative technology, is to participate in the trend without betting everything on it, drawing a parallel to investors who over-concentrated in dot-com stocks in 1999 to 2000 and experienced a decade of flat returns. 

Is inflation under control, and could it return? The view was mixed. Short-term, easing geopolitical tensions (specifically around Iran) could help bring energy-driven inflation down further. Longer-term, though, the expectation is that inflation will remain a persistent feature given the scale of national debt, with economic growth viewed as the primary tool for managing that debt over time, rather than inflation disappearing entirely. 

Webinar Topics by Chapter 

• Welcome and Agenda

  • Introductions and purpose of the quarterly update 

  • Overview of topics and how to submit live questions 

• Investment Philosophy

  • The five rules of investing (minimize taxes/fees, remove emotion, reject gurus, stay diversified) 

  • The firm's four-step process: Allocate, Research, Reallocate, Communicate 

• U.S. Economic Update

  • Job openings and unemployment trends 

  • Stock market performance versus company earnings 

  • Inflation drivers, including energy costs 

  • GDP growth and what it means for the broader economy 

• International Markets

  • Employment and earnings trends in developed markets 

  • Growth in emerging markets, including AI-related demand

  • Global inflation comparisons 

  • Separating political views from investment decisions 

• Fixed Income and Interest Rates

  • How central banks set short-term rates 

  • Why the 10-year Treasury rate matters for mortgages and loans 

  • Long-term rate trends and their effect on housing 

• Food for Thought

  • Historical market patterns during election years 

  • How consumer spending drives economic growth 

  • Balancing short-term risk with long-term perspective 

• Audience Q&A

  • Breakdown of international market allocation 

  • Employment and underemployment trends 

  • Key economic indicators to watch 

  • Pros and cons of AI 

  • Rising costs in healthcare and insurance 

  • Outlook on inflation and national debt